"....Public schools are closing. Teachers are being laid off by the thousands. First class jails and second class schools. Today there is a plan, a plan for comprehensive immigration reform. A plan for Afghanistan, we commit resources, a hundred billion dollars for a hundred Al Qaeda. A plan, don't ask, don't tell, for gays. A plan for national reform. But no plan for the investment for urban policy to put America back to work. So, we bail out the predators, the bankers that drove us in this hole. The victims remain on the sideline desperately looking for a job...." - Reverend Jesse Jackson, NAACP National Convention, July 14, 2010.
"....Suddenly, Republican leaders want to change that. They say we shouldn't provide unemployment insurance because it costs money. So after years of championing policies that turned a record surplus into a massive deficit, including a tax cut for the wealthiest Americans, they've finally decided to make their stand on the backs of the unemployed. They've got no problem spending money on tax breaks for folks at the top who don't need them and didn't even ask for them; but they object to helping folks laid off in this recession who really do need help. And every day this goes on, another 50,000 Americans lose that badly needed lifeline...."President Obama, weekly address, July 17, 2010.
Oh, the republicans have a plan for November 2010.
President Obama's weekly address for July 17, 2010:
....Representative Kevin Brady of Texas, the top House Republican on the Joint Economic Committee, argued that fiscal discipline was vital to restoring confidence.
"Businesses are slow to hire because they fear higher taxes, job-killing regulation and a dysfunctional Washington that is ideologically driven and increasingly anti-business," he said.
Mr. Brady added: "Unless their excessive spending deficits and debt accumulation are quickly reversed, the United States may experience a debt crisis similar to Greece."
Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin, the top Republican on the House Budget Committee, went even further. "I reject the false premise that only forceful and sustained government intervention in the economy can secure this country's renewed prosperity," he said last week....
But knowing their hypocrisy, he said unto them, "Why are you putting me to the test? Bring me a dime and let me see it."
And they brought one. Then he said to them, "Whose head is this -- FDR's or Herbert Hoover's?"
They answered, "Roosevelt's."
And he said unto them, "Right. So shut up. Have you morons already forgotten the 20th Century? When the choice is between imitating what worked and what really, really didn't work, why are you pretending it's terribly complicated?"
And after that, no one dared to ask him any question.
I'm not an economist, but we've got five applicants for every single job opening. If you tell me that the best response to that situation is to lay off hundreds of thousands of teachers, I will not accept that this means that you're smarter and more expert than I am. I will instead conclude -- regardless of your prestige or position or years of study -- that you're a moral imbecile. And knowing what I know about your inability to make moral judgments I will have no reason to trust you to make complicated macroeconomic ones.
...Both Krugman and I have written that Keynesianism is counter-intuitive and hard to explain, but as Avedon Carol perspicaciously observed in this discussion, that's not really true. She said "when the patient is hemorrhaging you give it a blood transfusion and right now the doctors are prescribing leeches." It really is that simple...
....As it happens, I've read conflicting evidence about whether or not it's really small businesses that are usually the engines of job creation when the economy comes out of a recession. It seems to vary with the recession, and in any case the net difference between job creation in small vs. large businesses appears to be modest. Still, most of what Lee says here applies to large businesses too: lack of expansion right now is due less to credit woes than to simple lack of demand. Until consumers start spending again, economic growth is going to be weak. But what's going to get consumers spending again?
Last week I noted how quickly Roy Blunt began echoing the GOP talking point that the moratorium on deep-water drilling in the Gulf would cause greater economic suffering in that region than the oil spill that prompted it. He's still riding that particlar hobby horse, tweeting just three days ago:
Discussing BP oil spill disaster @971FMTalk Obama's drilling moratorium will kill tens of thousands of jobs.
As an argument against the moratorium, the claim was pretty much without merit to start with - sure, some Gulf states are heavily dependent on the oil industry, but rushing ahead without taking appropriate precautions is what caused this catastrophe in the first place. It's very likely that if President Bush had not issued his get-the-oil-fast, consequences-be-dammed executive order of May 18, 2001, and Bush appointees, "burrowed" into the Interior Department, had not downplayed risks in reports to Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar, we would not be struggling to cope with this unprecedented oil spill and its concomitant damage now - damage that goes far, far beyond unemployed oil-rig workers.
However, these considerations are moot. Blunt's assertion is totally undercut by the simple fact that, in addition to the 20 billion dollar fund to allay damages resulting from the spill, the president got BP to commit to setting aside 100 million dollars to compensate oil workers who are unemployed as a result of the shut-down of previously operational oil-rigs in the gulf. After announcing this agreement, the President added:
I'm absolutely confident BP will be able to meet its obligations to the Gulf Coast and to the American people. BP is a strong and viable company and it is in all our interests that it remains so. This is about accountability.
Let's see ... the President is looking out for those who have been hurt by BP's negligence - including displaced oil workers - and asking for accountability from BP while he does it ... or, as Roy Blunt might prefer to say, he's "shaking down" an honest mega-corporation that got caught in a "natural disaster."
Today the tax extenders bill of 2010, which would have, among other important provisions, extended cobra subsidies and unemployment benefits for those hardest hit by the Bush recession, was defeated in the Senate 52-47. And Claire "I see Deficits" McCaskill was one of the 52 senators voting against the bill. She did this in spite of President Obama's insistence that the spending is necessary "to boost the economy as signs grow of the recovery's fragility."
Unemployment is at 9.7 percent right now. It's extraordinarily high. And it's extraordinarily high because not enough jobs are being created to absorb all the workers who got laid off during the recession. Killing their unemployment benefits wouldn't magically make more jobs appear. It would just make those people poorer, and because they'd be poorer, they'd have less to spend, and because unemployment is geographically concentrated, that would mean the economy in areas with lots of unemployed workers would tank further and thus it would take longer for it to create jobs.
Even a middle of the road economist like White House Economic Advisor Lawrence Summers understands that there is a difference between short term stimulus debt and long-term deficits:
He said the government's stimulus measures helped revive economic growth ...
"It would be an act of fiscal shortsightedness to break from the longstanding practice of extending these provisions at a moment when sustained economic recovery is so crucial to our medium-term fiscal prospects," he said. ...
Summers said much of that deficit will be reduced over the next five years as economic stimulus measures are phased out. ..
So what's wrong with Claire McCaskill? Why can't she understand the distinction between short-term and long term spending? And how can she do something that will hurt so many in Missouri where those who have been hit the hardest by the recession have already been raked over the coals by a state legislature that wants to balance the budget entirely on their backs?
...The largest over-the-month decreases in employment occurred in Missouri and Ohio (-12,800 each), followed by Kentucky (-11,800), New Jersey (-9,100), Florida (-6,100), and Nevada (-5,700). Kentucky (-0.7 percent) experienced the largest over-the-month percentage decrease in employment, followed by Missouri and Nevada (-0.5 percent each), and Alabama, Kansas, Mississippi, and Ohio (-0.3 percent each)....
The percentage unemployment for Missouri, compared to a year ago:
Missouri
January 2009 - 8.1%
January 2010 (preliminary) - 9.5%
Over-the-year rate change (preliminary) - 1.4%
[emphasis added]
The actual numbers (seasonally adjusted):
Missouri
Civilian labor force (Numbers in thousands)
January 2009 - 3,053.0
November 2009 - 3,008.5
December 2009 - 3,001.4
January 2010 (preliminary) - 2,994.5
Unemployed (Numbers in thousands)
January 2009 - 246.4
November 2009 - 290.2
December 2009 - 288.0
January 2010 (preliminary) - 283.0
Unemployed (Percent of labor force)
January 2009 - 8.1%
November 2009 - 9.6%
December 2009 - 9.6%
January 2010 (preliminary) - 9.5%
[emphasis added]
It could be worse, President McCain (r) and Governor Hulshof (r) could be on the Sunday tee-vee talk shows telling us, "We're doing nothing because nothing is the best thing to do. All is well!"
...What happened was a, a lack of conviction, a lack of, you know, if you're gonna do something like this you're gonna have a stimulus program you gotta go and do it...This is the kind of situation where you're trying to build a bridge across an economic chasm. If you build half a bridge it doesn't work. You have to do the real thing...
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in September (-263,000), and the unemployment rate (9.8 percent) continued to trend up, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today....
And U-6?:
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization (Percent)
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers (Seasonaly adjusted)
Sept 2009 17.0
[emphasis added]
That's one in six.
Take a look at this comparison of the percentages of job loss from peak employment.
...In August, the West reported the highest regional jobless rate, 10.6 percent, followed by the Midwest, 10.0 percent. The Northeast recorded the lowest rate, 9.0 percent, and was the only region with a statistically significant over-the-month rate change (+0.3 percentage point). All four regions experienced significant unemployment rate increases from August 2008, the largest of which was in the West (+4.1 percentage points).....
The percentage unemployment for Missouri, compared to a year ago:
Missouri
August 2008 - 6.2%
August 2009 (preliminary) - 9.5%
Over-the-year rate change (preliminary) - 3.3%
[emphasis added]
The actual numbers (seasonally adjusted):
Missouri
Civilian labor force (Numbers in thousands)
August 2008 - 3,009.9
June 2009 - 2,995.9
July 2009 - 3,003.3
August 2009 (preliminary) - 3,009.3
Unemployed (Numbers in thousands)
August 2008 - 186.9
June 2009 - 278.0
July 2009 - 279.1
August 2009 (preliminary) - 285.7
Unemployed (Percent of labor force)
August 2008 - 6.2%
June 2009 - 9.3%
July 2009 - 9.3%
August 2009 (preliminary) - 9.5%
...In July, the West reported the highest regional jobless rate, 10.5 percent, followed by the Midwest, 10.2 percent. The Northeast recorded the lowest rate, 8.7 percent. The West was the only region with a statistically significant over-the-month rate change (+0.3 percentage point). All four regions experienced significant unemployment rate increases from July 2008, the largest of which were in the West (+4.2 percentage points) and Midwest (+4.0 points)....
The percentage unemployment for Missouri, compared to a year ago:
Missouri
July 2008 - 6.1%
July 2009 (preliminary) - 9.3%
Over-the-year rate change (preliminary) - 3.2%
The actual numbers (seasonally adjusted):
Missouri
Civilian labor force (Numbers in thousands)
July 2008 - 3,010.0
May 2009 - 3,010.4
June 2009 - 2,995.9
July 2009 (preliminary) - 3,002.2
Unemployed (Numbers in thousands)
July 2008 - 182.6
May 2009 - 270.9
June 2009 - 278.0
July 2009 (preliminary) - 278.7
Unemployed (Percent of labor force)
July 2008 - 6.1%
May 2009 - 9.0%
June 2009 - 9.3%
July 2009 (preliminary) - 9.3%
...Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia recorded statistically significant over-the-month unemployment rate increases in May. Michigan reported the largest of these (+1.2 percentage points), followed by Rhode Island (+1.0 point) and Missouri and West Virginia (+0.9 point each)...
The percentage unemployment for Missouri, compared to a year ago:
Missouri
May 2008 - 5.8%
May 2009 (preliminary) - 9.0%
Over-the-year rate change (preliminary) - 3.2%
The actual numbers (seasonally adjusted):
Missouri
Civilian labor force (Numbers in thousands)
May 2008 - 3,010.3
March 2009 - 3,014.0
April 2009 - 3,008.4
May 2009 (preliminary) - 3,011.6
Unemployed (Numbers in thousands)
May 2008 - 174.1
March 2009 - 261.7
April 2009 - 242.5
May 2009 (preliminary) - 272.4
Unemployed (Percent of labor force)
May 2008 - 5.8%
March 2009 - 8.7%
April 2009 - 8.1%
May 2009 (preliminary) - 9.0%
Former Missouri State Treasurer and probable candidate for the open U.S. Senate seat Sarah Steelman (r) posted on Twitter about a visit to a local business she arranged for a class she teaches in Springfield::
Took my class to Askinosie Chocolate Factory tonight. Shawn with great humility talked about his business and helping kids. 5:58 PM Apr 21st from web
He is changing his neighborhood, community and the world by the choices he makes. His Chocolate University is such a great! 6:00 PM Apr 21st from web
I think the students appreciated what he is doing. He is a capitalist who makes positive choice based on service not "greed". 6:02 PM Apr 21st from web
He has a new initiative to help unemployed people.Not relying on government - but each other. He is truly an inspiration to all who meet him 6:05 PM Apr 21st from web
The initiative of this one small business is a good thing. Let's ask Sarah Steelman to do the math and try to figure out how many small businesses it would take, choosing to do the right thing, to solve this problem in the entire United States:
REGIONAL AND STATE EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT: MARCH 2009
Regional and state unemployment rates were nearly all higher in March. Forty-six states recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, North Dakota and the District of Columbia registered rate decreases, and 3 states had no change in their rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the year, jobless rates were up in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The national unemployment rate rose from 8.1 percent in February to 8.5 percent in March, which was 3.4 percentage points higher than in March 2008...
Missouri employment numbers:
Table C. States with statistically significant employment changes from February 2009 to March 2009, seasonally adjusted
Missouri
Feb 2009: 2,747,900
March 2009 (preliminary): 2,736,800
Over-the-month change (preliminary): -11,100
Table D. States with statistically significant employment changes from March 2008 to March 2009, seasonally adjusted
At 10:00 a.m. today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the monthly Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment report:
METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT: JANUARY 2009
Unemployment rates were higher in January than a year earlier in 371 of the 372 metropolitan areas and unchanged in 1 area, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Fourteen areas recorded jobless rates of at least 15.0 per-ent, while 23 areas registered rates below 5.0 percent. The national unemployment rate in January was 8.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted, up from 5.4 percent a year earlier...
Via Matthew Yglesias, a nifty website gives you a demographic profile of your ZIP code. Something that stands out in my area: there's a 9.4% unemployment rate, yet a whopping 24.3% of my neighbors live below the poverty line.
Incidentally, the highest poverty rate of any ZIP code in the state is 69.2%, and it's not in any inner city, but rather in Brownwood, MO, just southwest of Cape Girardeau.
